Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
